Re: Centerfield possibilities if KGJ moves to right
PECOTA weighted means projections:
Deno, 458 PA: .296/.365/.459, 12 HR, 9/12 SB, .280 EqA
Freel, 447 PA: .271/.361/.404, 8 HR, 32/42 SB, .270 EqA
Bruce, 571 PA: .264/.319/.460, 20 HR, 14/21 SB, .260 EqA
Crawford, 586 PA: .309/.351/.476, 16 HR, 43/54 SB, .294
Baldelli, 520 PA: .299/.342/.501, 20 HR, 13/17 SB, .292
Now, looking at those projections, make an argument for trading away talent to acquire Baldellli or Crawford over our in house options.
Another very interesting projection is Joey Votto:
Votto, 630 PA: .284/.366/.511, 29 HR, 18/24 SB. That's right, PECOTA projects Votto as the second best offensive Red.
In terms of EqA:
1. Dunn .314
2. Votto .293
3. Junior .281
4. Denorfia .280
5. Encarnacion .279
6. Hatteberg .273
7. Freel .270
8. Ross .262
9. Bruce .260
10. Hatteberg .259
11. Phillips .256
12. Conine .252
13. Gil .249 (as a CF)
14. Gonzalez .247
Not saying that these projections are perfect, but at least one method of looking at things suggests that while Baldelli or Crawford would indeed be upgrades, perhaps not quite as big as you'd think. If Deno does not get a real shot (not just ST or 100 AB in April) at being an everyday OF, it speaks pretty poorly of the Reds brass. Yes, I know he could fail. He could be Brandon Larson. But everything from the scouting and statistic point of view suggests otherwise -- to say nothing of the fact that he's the best defensive option we have.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.