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Originally Posted by Spitball
If Bray turns into anything near B.J.Ryan, the trade with Washington will be a success for the Reds.
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He won't. He doesn't have nearly the stuff for it. It should be noted that Ryan didn't do anything worth mentioning until he was age 27. If Bray takes another four years to break through I'm going out on a limb and predicting he won't be with the Reds when it happens.
Though Kearns and Lopez have amassed essentially the same number of Win Shares to date as Ryan even after he turned into B.J. Ryan. A better comparable for Bray would be Mike Stanton, whose value has been in longevity, not excellence.
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Originally Posted by Spitball
If Kearns continues to annually put up 20 homers, 85 RBI's, and a .265 average, he will be a journeyman corner outfielder who will move from team to team just like Reggie Sanders, Preston Wilson, Moises Alou, Juan Encarnacion, Jeromy Burnitz and all the other good, but not great, outfielders.
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That's an odd grouping in terms of career value. Alou and Sanders, though they've made a lot of stops, probably rank in the top 50 RFs of all time. If Kearns goes on to have a career like those two then we should wail openly.
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Originally Posted by Spitball
As a good hit-no field second baseman, Lopez will surely follow the same path as all the others of similar ilk, Todd Walker, Mark Grudzielanek, Tony Womack, Ron Belliard, and Marcus Giles.
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Jose Vidro would be the comp I'd use. I'll be fairly amazed if Lopez doesn't surpass the first four guys on your list.
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Originally Posted by Spitball
Smart teams move the Kearnses and Lopezes of the world because they don't want to waste money on players who are easily replaced.
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Hmm, I'm all over the place agreeing and disagreeing with that statement. Guys like Kearns and Lopez aren't/weren't easily replaced. They left a huge hole last year and the Reds still haven't filled it.
They're also unqualified bargains in the current market.
That said, I agree that they were good players to move. The Reds had to turn some bats into arms, following in the vein of the Wily Mo Pena and Jose Guillen trades. So, while they were the right guys to move, the point isn't to get rid of them, it's to trade them for a quality return. That's where the Reds blew it and it's the source of complaint.
One of Kearns or Lopez for Bray would have been a gamble, but one you could at least view as a long-term play. Majewski's where it all falls apart. He's not all that good when he's healthy and he's got persistent arm trouble to boot. So you're talking about trading two productive everyday players for one gamble on a lefty reliever. That's not something smart teams do.
As for the historical significance of the deal, it profiles as pretty awful. Has the franchise done worse? Sure, but that doesn't excuse the putridity of this one.