Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
Soo.. did you understand that in my post I made the distinction between current power and projected power?
Since you're big into the counting stats here, keep in mind that Valaika, Parker and Turner all had more PAs than Stubbs -- in the cases of Parker and Valaika, significantly more. Also, as a footnote, beyond the 2 HRs Stubbs had in the 2-3 postseason games they played, he also 3 triples, which narrows the EBH rate gap a little between him and the guys you're claiming have better power.
For your consideration:
Reds 2006, doubles
Clayton -- 30
Aurilia -- 25
Hatteberg -- 28
Phillips -- 28
Dunn -- 24
Does this mean Dunn has less gap power than these guys?
Stubbs may very well have some of that all-or-nothing performance in his swing, like Dunn, but is that a fatal flaw?
In your haste to bury Stubbs your argument ignores the essentials of scouting and develoment. He's got plenty of time to refine his legitimate tools, unless, as appears to be the case, you believe he's a finished product at the age of 21. He's not as polished as some of his Billings teammates -- but that shouldn't surprise anyone who knew what he was coming out of Texas. The art of scouting is in projection -- and that's where Stubbs is considered to have more room to make gains than the others do.
Most scouts doubted his bat. Most scouts thought his bat wouldn't translate professional ball. Most scouts thought the Reds were reaching with this pick.
His 3 3B's do not narrow the gap as 3 of the four guys mentioned had at least 3 triples, with Valaika having 4. Dorn had 2.
And significantly more PA's? Stubbs did get a concussion in August, though I don't know how much time he missed. But he had about exactly the same number of PA's as Danny Dorn. But he projects to be a better hitter right? but he didn't out hit Dorn though they had about exactly the same amount of experience?
Yeah, right now I see Stubbs as somewhat of a bust, and I see Linecum getting a look at the rotation or at least a bullpen spot with the Giants in '07. I think that is rushing him, but he's on the cusp of making his major league debut. I doubt we see Stubbs in a MLB uniform before 2009 if at all.