The Hardball Times have projected records for all teams in both leagues. They have based the projection on Wins Above Replacement level with adjustments for playing time, revised rosters, injuries, etc. Its interesting stuff. Check it out. The NL Central looks like this:
Team Win Loss % Chance of winning
St Louis 85 77 37%
Chicago 84 78 32%
Milwaukee 78 84 13%
Houston 75 87 8%
Cincinnati 73 89 5%
Pittsburgh 72 90 4%
They don't say much about the Reds in particular so I guess its up to us to debate why only 73 wins is projected. I'll start.
73 Wins seems about right to me (I actually was thinking 68 or 69). This team will have over 900 innings going to guys not named Harang, Arroyo or Coffey. That is the main problem right now IMO. The offense needs some help either from a Hamilton surprise or a Votto infusion as well. But 900 innings from 5th starter and mop-up man types is a real issue in my view.
Hopefully the team will move on to the next phase by sweeping out the dead wood and giving some younger hopefuls a chance by mid-season.