I can certainly see how Hardball Times would come up with that win estimate for the Reds.
This team needs to hit better than it did last year. If Junior can stay healthy and embrace RF, that will go a long way to making it happen. This team still needs Junior's bat. Hamilton is a wild card- could be anything from Rookie of the Year to back on skid row again (God forbid). But you just can't count on him, yet. To me, Phillips, Ross and Hatte are all question marks; I wouldn't expect any of them to put up the numbers they did last year, although Phillips has the highest ceiling of this group.
I think this team could literally go anywhere from 1st to last this year. I think the pitching is deeper than last years pitching, in that the Reds have fewer terrible pitchers than they had in 2006.
If Burton is given a chance and can be an effective closer, it would go a long way to making this team, a lot better. Or, to be generous, if Hermanson can step up and do the job. But I'd rather see Burton get the opportunity. From all the pro-Hermanson noise coming out of camp, about how nasty his splitter is, looks like the job will be his to lose. But I think Narron speaks the truth when he says that a closer makes everyone else more comfortable and better in their roles.
Milty's in his walk year; he could respond well, and hopefully earn himself a fresh new contract somewhere else
; but the key to Milty is if his knee holds up. When his knee is healthy and doesn't hurt, he truly is a different pitcher. Lohse could go either way, back in the dumpster, or be this years Arroyo. I think Majewski takes too much heat here; the guy is a good reliever when not hurt. Nope, he's not good enough to be a closer, but when healthy, he's good 8th inning material. Is he healthy, though?
In sum, I see too many question marks for my beloved Redlegs. I wouldn't be too surprised to see this team win 90, if it all comes together, or only in 70, if it all falls apart.