Re: 2007 Ken Griffey Jr. Predictions
Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling
"PECOTA - 415AB 21HR 68RBI .275BA .344OBP .506SLG"
I think the rate stats here are a little high. My guess is .270BA .320OBP and .470SLG.
I think he won't hit too many doubles and that will suppress his SLG%.
415AB seems reasonable, 21HR seems reasonable, and I would guess 80RBI since he will probably bat 4th. He would get more RBI if Phillips bats 5th and Encarnacion 3rd instead of the way Narron has it lined up now.
Griffey will be a below average right fielder, but he was a horrible center fielder in recent years. So the move to right field is way overdue.
As far as getting a good pitcher for Freel -- I don't think that will happen. Freel is popular here for his hustle and grit, but I don't think his stats would merit any team offering us a good pitcher in exchange. He is getting old and his speed and defense are vastly overrated here in Cincy. Last year will turn out to be his career year. I hope I am wrong.
I am excited to see Hamilton play in person. I get the feeling we may see a lot of him due to Freel/Griffey injuries. He could be the out-of-nowhere shot in the arm of 2007 like Brandon Phillips was in 2006. (Maybe I shouldn't use "shot in the arm" and Josh Hamilton in the same sentence?)
I guess my idea of a good pitcher is different than most and used somewhat loosely in this context. I don't think Freel could bring an established number 3 starter, but I think he could bring a compelling young arm or two. Some one with more upside than say a Kirk Saarloos or Bobby Livingston. Maybe a young guy with promise who has been squeezed out by a team spending on free agents or an undervalued guy stuck in some team's pen. It won't take much to be an upgrade over anyone not named Harang, Arroyo or Bailey right now. I'm just looking for hopeful as opposed to hopeless (Milton or Lohse) or wishful (Livingston or Saarloos). Belisle makes me hopeful somewhat but it would be nice to get some one like him w/o the injury concerns.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS