Re: There is hope for the Reds in '07
Interesting comments. I hope you are right about the 84 wins.
I think the team has taken huge losses offensively. The loss of Aurilia, Kearns and Lopez will hurt the Reds severely.
Since Womack only played about a week or two before being replaced by Phillips I don't think it is fair to count Phillips as an upgrade over last season's team.
The other think I fear is that Harang and Arroyo are highly unlikely to repeat their excellent production of last year. Firstly, they both pitched at a much higher level than they ever had before in their careers. This would portend they will "regress to the mean" this year and perform at a level more in line with their previous seasons. This is especially true of Arroyo because he has been in the league longer. Secondly, I believe both Harang and Arroyo were severely overworked at times last year. They both had several games where they threw over 120 pitches, which is a major omen of arm injuries in the future. Narron is totally clueless on how to handle pitchers in my opinion. His comments of wanting to go to a four-man rotation scare me to death. He doesn't understand why pitchers don't all pitch 20+ complete games every year like in the good old days. Hasn't he ever studied the evolution of modern baseball?
I agree the Reds pitching depth is better than last year, I have a feeling they will need it.
Anyway, I think the Reds will be fortunate to match their record of last season, much less contend for the division title. It will take at least 90 wins to win the division this year. The Cardinals were extremely lucky to win the division last year with only 83 wins, which is the worst record in history for a World Series champion. Remember when the Reds won 96 games in 1999 but didn't make the playoffs? That was the highest win total in history for a team that didn't make the playoffs.