Re: BA draft study, college talent leads the way
Maybe the college / juco guys were more likely to make the bigs, but what are the odds of a guy being an impact player (define that however you want - All-Stars, top 10 in MVP voting, team leaders in any of the major offensive/pitching statistics, etc)? Maybe the college / juco guys are safer bets to make the show, but what kind of impact are they going to make once they get there? It's the essence of risk/reward.
I'd also be curious to see if there are any geographic patterns. Are high school pitchers from the northeast more likely than high school pitchers from the northwest to make it? Are high school bats from texas more or less likely to make it than college bats from the midwest? Etc. That kind of information would really be useful in terms of allowing a team to make an informed decision about where to deploy scouts, etc.