Originally Posted by 15fan
Maybe the college / juco guys were more likely to make the bigs, but what are the odds of a guy being an impact player (define that however you want - All-Stars, top 10 in MVP voting, team leaders in any of the major offensive/pitching statistics, etc)? Maybe the college / juco guys are safer bets to make the show, but what kind of impact are they going to make once they get there? It's the essence of risk/reward.
I'd also be curious to see if there are any geographic patterns. Are high school pitchers from the northeast more likely than high school pitchers from the northwest to make it? Are high school bats from texas more or less likely to make it than college bats from the midwest? Etc. That kind of information would really be useful in terms of allowing a team to make an informed decision about where to deploy scouts, etc.
There's definitely multiple layers of this stuff, far more than a basic count can cover. Though with that sort of tilt toward college/juco guys, I'll guarantee you it inevitably leads to more of everything (impact players, secondary players, role players, etc.).
Just thinking out loud here, but might these numbers say more about the state of American baseball than anything else? We all know there's an extremely competitive sports market for premier athletes. I'm also under the impression kids play less baseball than they did in previous generations, even the ones who play at organized levels. It's possible that the sorting out process at the college level has become more important due to those factors, that baseball, at least in America, has become a late bloomer's sport. That layer of HS kids who flat out disappear in A ball don't get drafted if they go to college and fizzle. Meanwhile, a lot of kids who weren't highly regarded find themselves in college.