Re: Gonelong's 6th annual Season W/L prediction thread ...
72-90 this season
One of the better predictors of how the season will go is the final 10-ish games of spring training (I used the final 12), when rotations are being set and everyday lineups are being used more often and for longer periods. Reds went 5-7 in that period. Extrapolated over a full season that means 68 or so wins. I think the Reds are a tad better than that so I'm saying 72 wins this year.
Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.