Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
There is truth in this, just as in any sport. But the true high-high-end talent is often recognizable by the time the kid is 18 -- thus the NBA's rush to sign high schoolers, for example. This is why I have no problem with the Reds looking at high schoolers for their first round picks.
Except we keep learning that it isn't that easy to spot the "true high-high-end talent." For instance, I am in shock B.J. Upton isn't a stud player at this very moment. Seriously, he had everything -- five tools, great instincts, loved the game. At age 18 he seemed like he was only a heartbeat away from the majors. Maybe he'll still get it together to be a good player, but he looked like Cooperstown was in his future five years ago.
I'm not saying don't draft high school players, but this is yet more evidence of how high the risk is.