Originally Posted by kaldaniels
It'd be a shame if Harang reverted to his 3.83 ERA in 2005. And another shame if Arroyo reverted to his 4.03 ERA in 2004. Point is...while it was a career year for both, they are 2 solid pitchers who eat innings. Injury aside, it is hard to find fault for extending those 2 guys now.
And I'm not finding fault with those signings. As I said, I don't think the earth will crumble and fall into the sea tomorrow with the people involved. I'm just saying that someone like redsgabp and his 'everything works out perfect' plan is unrealistic. And, personally, redsgabp I don't have a problem with you/someone being optimistic but I think you should also be realistic (if it's possible that the two are compatible
Bailey, Votto and Bruce have proven nothing at the ML level and the odds are that only one of the three will become a solid major league player. The odds that one of them will become a 'superstar' are minscule. If you think all three will be 'stars', go to Vegas and bet all of your money on '00', your odds are better there.
Back in '98 I was touting a football QB that was playing ball in the low minors with the Reds. I had a friend that was a University of Texas alum and I told him, 'this kid is going to be a star'. That kid is in LF for the Reds most days now but he's never lived up to my (and many others) expectations. He's a good/very good (depending on your definition) player but I don't consider him a 'star', plus his numbers are declining. (shrug) I'd be very happy if one of Bailey, Votto or Bruce became a 'star'.
We all know that injuries are the wild card. Any pitcher is one pitch away from the end of his career. Field players not so much but careers have ended for outstanding players with a bad pitch, a bad slide or meetings with OF walls.
Basically, as a Reds fan, I'm wishing everything comes true for all the projections for these kids. But I'm also pragmatic enough to know that it won't.