Originally Posted by RFS62
I understand everyone's problem with the "hot hand" approach.
But if you didn't look at it this way, what would be the point of advance scouting?
It's the perfect example of the micro vs. macro argument. Long term stats are perfect for the macro. They are much more important in analyzing personnel moves. But every player has ups and downs, injuries and hot streaks throughout the season. And on top of the short term stats, the coaching staff is watching Alex's stroke, and it's not hard to see he's raking. Will it last forever? Probably not. But let's maximize the return while we can.
Making these kind of subjective judgments, in concert with an understanding of stats, that's what the smart teams do.
Sabrmetrics tells us in no uncertain terms that lineup construction doesn't matter. I don't agree with that, and I do believe that certain players are better suited for different slots in the lineup, especially if you are expecting your number two hitter to move runners over by either bunting or hitting it on the ground to the right side. I'm not pushing that approach either. Just commenting on how different game plans require different skill sets.
I agree with what you say for the most part. If a guy genuinely appears to have figured things out with his swing and plate approach, that's something to take into account. However if a guy is doing the same things he has always done and is just getting lucky, I think it's folly to reorganize the lineup around luck. A guy who seems dialed in today could put on the "golden sombrero" tomorrow.
Personally, I think lineups should be organized around OBP. Guys with good OBP should bat at the top of the lineup because a high OBP shows that they're good at not making outs. On one level, it means they're getting on base. But it also means that if someone is on base ahead of them, they could also be moving the runner over and not making outs. I want these guys to get the most ABs in a game. Guys with lower OBP, I'm probably going to bat lower in the order. I might actually ask them to lay down a bunt or something like that because I'm not as certain they'll get on base, I might be more willing to give up an out in order to move a runner over. But I'm fine if a manager takes micro decisions into account, as long as those decisions are based on some real information and not just because a guy is getting lucky for a week with his hits falling in.