Originally Posted by RedEye
Holy cow, what a great post. I'm intrigued by #3 the most (although it may be the most difficult to pin down). How do you figure this? Do you have specific games in mind? Who are the best advance scouts in baseball, and are there teams that routinely win 6-8 more games because of the guy/girl they have working the job?
I figure it from my charts and memory. I also use my judgement watching guys take strike after strike while looking for another pitch. "Freel last Sept was the standout. Dunn was next. On the pitching end you can really narrow it down with what I put into this post. Arroyo '06 from July to August. Even some of Sept. Everyone knew what was coming. If you watch the Dodgers attack the Rockies for example and see that the Dodgers held Brad Hawpe to a 1-15 series there is data. Pitches, counts, situations, etc... You have to evaluate how they did that to him. Hawpe comes to town and you pitch EXACTLY opposite of what the Dodgers did and he goes 10-15 with 4 bombs who's to fault? There are other variables involved but you are looking for "opportunities" and tendencies. In this dept the Reds are waaaaaaaaay behind the curve, IMO.
The best advance scout in Baseball? Hmmmmm. There's a lot of 'em. Have to get back to you on that.
Yes, there are teams that win more based on their scouting. It's funny that those teams typically go to the playoffs year after year. The Cards for years have employed phenomenal scouts, same with the Braves and now the White Sox and Indians. One of the better scouts works for the Royals so I guess it's not all about scouting sometimes.
I brought up last year that there are about 6-8 teams that scout THEMSELVES. It's so important that I do not have enough time to even accurately describe it. The Cards, Braves and White Sox have been doing it for some time. Now it's starting to catch on.