Originally Posted by Stingray
OK. My point was that it's certainly possible Dunn would want to go back to Houston when he's a FA. It that were the case a discounted long extention beyond 08 would be very unlikely. I've never heard that he dislikes Cincinnati or the Reds.
OK. Houston is home. Everybody wants to go home. Lets accept that as fact. That seems to be the contention here.
Houston has Carlos Lee in LF and Lance Berkman at 1B. Unless Dunn amazingly learns to play 2B to take over for Biggio, Houston has no place for him to play and has needs in other areas (Starting Pitching) that any Free Agent money will be used on. I just don't see how Houston is an option for Dunn.
So... if Dunn wants to be at home and home isn't really an option, isn't it entirely possible that his second choice would be his professional home? The Reds organization is all he's ever known and if home and familiarity is the attraction (which seems to be a lot of the basis of your points) then it stands to reason that Cincy would have the inside track on Dunn if they want him.
I think the bigger issue is whether the Reds want Dunn at this point. They should be talking LTC now IMO. Barring a major change like an injury or illness, the price only goes up over time.