Originally Posted by hebroncougar
Speaking of clueless. Let's end this once and for all, for people who don't think Dunn has value, here is how Baseball Prospecuts has him valued over the next five years (and I know they aren't the end all, be all, but they are pretty good at what they do):
Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2007 4.7 0.9 5.5 $16,000,000 36.2 42.8
2008 5.0 0.7 5.7 $18,100,000 31.1 35.1
2009 4.7 0.6 5.3 $17,550,000 28.0 30.6
2010 3.9 0.6 4.5 $14,925,000 21.3 25.8
2011 3.3 0.4 3.8 $12,500,000 17.9 18.8
Peak 24.8 $66,925,000 134.4 153.2
A quick point of opinionated contention.... IMHO, BP has real issues with the defensive side of things.... anything beyond their valuation of bats is pretty suspect (WARP, MORP etc) because they are impacted by the way they rate defense.
I think the truth about Dunn's worth probably lies somewhere in the middle of the two polarized camps... He's probably worth more to the Reds than to a lot of other teams because the Reds only have to pay his salary (while other teams would also have to give up talent to the reds for that privilege). But I think there are teams that might do something unexpected if they feel Dunn is the piece that can put them over the top. Basically, IMHO, if he's hitting BP's VORP projections, his trade value peaks as July approaches and then falls again as the off season comes (when the most options for teams are available). Obviously his worth depends upon how contending teams are set for DH and LF. That means the number of teams that might seriously deal for him will be a small minority even at his peak value. At league minimum, nearly every team would consider him. At $13M (ala '08), he's not nearly as attractive. That is not a slam on Dunn in anyway. It's the business side of baseball.
He's a player with an asterisk (unique skillset). His defense and contract situation mitigate his trade value. He's to the point in his career where the money he'll make means he's more of a risk since his value is essentially all derived from his bat and his rate will be at the market value. He's probably best suited to DH but that's a position with the greatest talent pool to select from. The talent pool for left field is smaller but is still very large as well. Basically, teams weigh what they'll have to pay him + what they'd have to give up to acquire him in talent and they can see ways in which they can achieve a reasonably
similar affect on their RA/RA equation for cheaper and less risk. The Reds equation is much simpler-they only have to weigh the risk of paying Dunn versus the risk of paying someone new they bring in to replace Dunn. I think the Reds pick up Dunn's '08 option.