Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
Given the little that we see, it's likely we can't make solid judgments based on video. However, I definitely form preferences based on the videos, and occasionally I feel like there is a rationale for these preferences -- especially when it comes to pitchers' deliveries. (For example, I like Brackman's and Aumont's deliveries quite a bit better than Beavan's, if we're talking giant righthanders ranked in the top 20). Ahren's swing just look quick to me, especially from the right side, and I put a premium on his being able to take up switch hitting successfully.
Again, I don't put a lot of stock in a difference of 20 places in a BA list. These kids are developing rapidly, and they came into the season ranked on information from a year ago, which may have been based on several reports or relatively few. Within a pretty broad stratum, I guess I'd give more credence to whether a prospect is rising or falling.
I agree with you mostly. There's nothing wrong with grabbing a guy above where his perceived market value lies. My only addendum is you better be right. You're donning a bullseye in that situation and you need to understand the downside of donning a bullseye. I actually think helps synthesize the decision. You don't want to reach on a kid you kind of like. You want to reach on a kid you adore, a kid you feel you've got to have, a kid whose path to the majors seems assured from your current vantage point.
If that's how the Reds feel about Ahrens, then pick him. If he's a "good enough" pick designed to save some money to sprinkle around some cash to the extra compensation picks, then I'd consider it an awful decision and that the club would be deserving of every ounce of derision heaped upon it if Ahrens struggles.