[edabbs44]

Interesting take on who the Rays should take at #1. But, by looking at what he says about taking pitching, this is how I feel about the Reds and what I've been saying for a while.

If the Reds think this guy Ahrens is a lock to be a star over any available pitcher, then fine. But they need to load up on arms.

Rays should take Price No. 1

Carl Crawford is signed through 2010, Rocco Baldelli through 2011. Delmon Young is under Tampa Bay's control through 2012, and so is B.J. Upton. The Devil Rays' window of opportunity for playoff relevance -- their first real and best chance, after 10 years in existence -- will occur sometime in the next three to four years.

But the window will close on Tampa Bay unless the Rays develop better pitchers and more pitching depth, and this is why it makes sense for the Rays to take Vanderbilt pitcher David Price with the first pick in Thursday's amateur draft.


The Rays could still take Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters or maybe prep third baseman Josh Vitters. But neither Wieters nor Vitters would help the Rays address their glaring need for high-end pitching -- the kind of pitching they need to contend with the big-money monsters that have dominated the AL East.


Price came into this season amid high expectations and has done everything to live up to them, going 11-0 with a 2.59 ERA and 192 strikeouts in 132 innings, and he has helped Vanderbilt to a No. 1 ranking. He is left-handed, throws hard and is widely respected for his work ethic and drive to improve. If the Rays drafted him, it's possible he would be in the big leagues sometime soon, within the next calendar year, joining James Shields, Scott Kazmir and maybe Jeff Niemann in the Tampa Bay rotation by the end of the 2008 season. "He has the best chance of giving [the Rays] help right away," said a major league talent evaluator. "And it's pitching help."

Increasingly, there are only three ways you can acquire top-flight pitching.

(1) You can either scout and draft your own talent.
(2) You can spend big dollars for free agents.
(3) You get lucky in a second-level trade or with a Rule 5 draft pick. Teams have all but stopped trading their top tier of young pitching (unless it's in a deal like John Danks for Brandon McCarthy, young gun for young gun). Spoke with a couple of general managers recently and asked if they would trade their best young pitcher for Crawford -- in both cases, these are excellent major league pitchers -- and they immediately shot down the speculation. "No chance," said one. "I love Crawford, and there are a lot of players I would trade for him. But not that guy [the pitcher], because how would I replace him?"

So if the Rays pass on Price, they would still be searching for someone like him. They need to take the pitcher.