Home Runs Are Rally Killers?
I have heard on this site (I think originally qouting Jerry Narron) people refering to home runs as "rally killers." I have always thought this statement to be ludacris, (and still do) but I decided to do a little research regarding the home run and how it relates to wins and losses. I just refused to believe that teams that hit a lot of home runs could consistantly lose ball games. I just figured the Reds were an exception to the rule. I was surprised by the stats I found and how many bad teams are near or at the top of the team home run leader board. Here is what I found....
Team Home Runs Record
1.Cincinnati Reds 79 23-38
2.Milwaukee Brewers 78 33-27
3.Texas Rangers 75 21-39
4.Cleveland Indians 74 36-22
5.Detroit Tigers 74 34-25
6.Toronto Blue Jays 70 28-31
7.Tampa Bay Devil Rays 68 26-32
8.Florida Marlins 67 30-31
9.Atlanta Braves 65 33-28
10.Philadelphia Phillies 63 31-29
These teams have a combined record of 295- 302, a winning percentage of
.494. As you can see not only do a lot of home runs not relate to a good win lose record, it is almost a formula for losing baseball (all be it slightly under .500) Intersting to note that the top 3 teams - Reds, Brewers, and Rangers have a combined record of 77- 104, a winning percentage of .425. 5 of the 10 teams have a losing record.
Naturally this lead me to look up team ERA and see if pitching does indeed have a much more drastic effect than homers as far as a good win lose record goes. The numbers speak for themselves.
Team ERA Record
1.San Diego Padres 2.91 36-23
2.Oakland Athletics 3.22 31-28
3.New York Mets 3.40 35-23
4.Arizona Diamondbacks 3.58 36-25
5.Los Angelos Dodgers 3.66 34-26
6.San Francisco Giants 3.71 28-31
7.LA Angels of Anaheim 3.74 38-23
8.Boston Red Sox 3.78 38-21
9.Chicago Cubs 3.99 26-32
10.Milwaukee Brewers 4.02 33-27
The top 10 teams in team ERA have a combined record of 335- 259, a winning percentage of .563. A low team ERA almost guarantees you a shot at winning your division while a lot of team home runs doesn't even gaurantee you a shot at a winning record. In addition to the large win totals only 2 of the teams on this list have a losing record.
I know this is probably no front page news but just kind of reitarates the importance of pitching and the unimportance of home runs. I still however, refuse to refer to home runs as...."rally killers."
"YES! He rips it. Is it high enough? It's gonna be gone! Adam Dunn has done it again. Big #44 can take all day to round the bases here, thats done and gone- lookout dunner they're waitin for ya at home plate." - George Grand
"Did that just happen?" - Chris Welsch