Originally Posted by tixe
I don't expect 100 losses. However, this has been the most...hope-free?...season in some time. If the team loses 100 games, that would be, practically speaking, insignificant, except for whatever role it plays in getting a higher draft pick or waking up the powers that be.
I've always been highly critical of the lose-more-games-so-we-can-get-a-higher-pick crowd, but this season, there is no hope for anything significant. There will be no overall progress. The signs of better things come with Homer Bailey's appearances, the beginnings of promise for Josh Hamilton, the possibility of Joey Votto's debut, and one or two other things. It's starting to look like Dunn's not here long-term (hey, why would you want to keep a 27-year-old left-handed 40+ HR guy in a home-run park with a short right field fence?). Junior's resurgence is fun, but will only make a long-term difference for the team if Krivsky does the painful thing.
So, I don't expect 100 wins. Things will even out a bit, even if the team gets gutted. But in the long run, if it happens, it won't change the way I feel about this season.
I don't remember what I predicted the Reds would finish, but I think it was 79-83. In order for the Reds to do this, they'd have to end up 50-36, which is daggone near impossible. I remember MWM said 69 wins and that may be the winner.
Anyway, I don't see any way for this team to rebound to winning form. I saw it early on when Narron insisted on batting Phillips 2nd--a low OBP guy in the 2 hole? A free swinger at that. Freel was no leadoff man and never will be. He continued tok bat Dunn low in the order and Griffey all over the place. So your outfield consisted of two leftys who hit HRs and a CF who not only wasn't a CF, but fragile and was a banjo hitter. The infield was worse. As much as I admire the Scott Hattebergs of the world, they're never going to do much for a team. Slow of foot and streaky. Great bench material. Same for Gonzalez. Good field, streaky, low OBP hitter. The fact that Narron had him hitting cleanup for awhile was laughable. Playing with Encarnacion didn't help either, since he was the best RH batter in the lineup when he played. Catcher was and is a mess with three who would be backups anywhere else. The starters consisted of two pretty good pitchers and three unknowns. The two pretty good pitchers turned into one thanks to overwork. The other three are up and down. And the bullpen, for all the money and time invested in it is horrible. That's your 2007 Reds.
What to do? Fire sale. Get rid of the backups and let them be backups for someone else, Bring up the kids (Votto, Bruce, etc) and the young promising pitchers and do anything you have to do to get rid of Stanton, Majewski, and a couple others. Get what you can out of David Weathers. Keep Dunn and Griffey for fannies in the seats and see what happens. Get a manager who doesn't resemble Gene Mauch and who might have a clue about winning.
That and $5 might get you a latte at Starbucks. Keep that in mind.