Originally Posted by Triples
Intersting concept but IMO I see a couple of things that I don't agree with in your "radical idea". First, teams share scouting reports across the minor league levels. Just because a player has never played in a league before doesn't mean they don't have scouting reports. Its obvious by now just about everyone has figured out is weaknesses and those are well documented in the scouting reports; 2.) with or without the scouting reports, the pitchers in the next level up will be better (at least on an overall average) so the likelihood of Stubbs doing better in Sarasota than in Dayton seems diminished. Combine the better pitching talent with good scouting reports and it seems highly unlikely that Stubbs would do any better and very likely do worse. He really needs to get it figured out, at least to a greater degree than right now, before they promote him.
Even with shared scouting reports, it takes a while for a league to get a good book on a player. In particular, they might not be overly worried about a guy who was struggling a level lower when he first shows up.
I'd worry more about the level jump if it was A to AA, but the FSL is still going to heavy with fastball pitchers with spottier off-speed offerings. For a guy who played major college baseball, what he sees there shouldn't be startling.
I'm not really worried if he does worse. What do you lose if he flops? He's already flopping. My concern is that if he figures it out a bit in Dayton, you don't gain anything. I'm not sure it moves the perceptual chains to give him some trade value. If he moves up a level and plays well there, that could resurrect his prospect status.
Another year like 2007 to date and he's in Szymanskiville. I'm not as concerned about Stubbs' develpment right now as I am in potentially getting some value from the #8 pick in the 2006 draft.