Originally Posted by jojo
Right but this thread is about properly assigning player worth and context is everything.
I wasn't trying to rag on you (or Dunn for that matter) but IMHO, your post illustrated the concept that there is perception of performance and there is true performance. Dunn will have very good June numbers. But the reality is that he really only had a great 4 days and a pretty average rest of the month. It may seem like hairsplitting but when deciding how to value a player, a key part of the equation is what should you reasonably expect him to do in the future (that's what you'll be paying him for anyway). Using Dunn's June as a primary marker, it's very probable that his bat would be greatly overvalued relative to his true ability.
Context is absolutely everything when determining a player's true worth.
I see your point about how the four-day stretch skewed Dunn's overall June numbers. However, isn't this true of most players? Don't most good players have little mini-streaks that make their overall numbers look better than they otherwise would?
Take Ryan Howard for example. He's had a hot June as well, with 9 HR and 24 RBI. However, if you take out a four-game stretch where he played against KC and the White Sox, he'd only have 5 HR and 19 RBI--not nearly so gangbusters.
Good players, it seems, always have hot streaks. Are you claiming that Dunn is more streaky (and hence less valuable) than other players? Is there any way to prove this with more than just "during this 4 game stretch..." type arguments?