[mbgrayson]

Homer pitches tonight against the Durham Bulls. There has been some discussion about a drop in Homer's velocity. I wonder if he is trying to pitch through an injury.

For whatever reason, Bailey isn't striking out batters in the majors at anywhere near his AAA rate.

Homer has struck out 55 in 61.2 innings in Louisville. That is a 8.03 K/9 rate.
In Cincinnati, he has struck out 15 in 28.1 innings. That is a 4.76 K/9 rate.
Last year at both Chatanooga and Sarasota, Homer had above a 9 K/9 rate.

Other young pitchers may have some drop-off going from AAA to MLB, but not almost in half.
For example, Tim Licecum of the Giants. In AAA this year, he struck out 46 in 31 innings. (K/9 rate of 13.36!). With the Giants, he has struck out 87 in 78 innings(K/9 of 10.04).

Phil Hughes; minors 26 ks in 21 innings, Yankees 11 ks in 10.2 innings.
Andrew Miller; minors 52 Ks in 72 IP, Tigers 31 Ks in 40 IP.
Yovani Gallardo; minors 110 Ks in 77.2 IP, Brewers 27 Ks in 28.1 IP.

In fact, Homer's 4.76 K/9 rate is alarmingly low. For him to be a "#1" starter, he is going to have to do better than that.