Thread: BA Midseason Top 100 View Single Post
07-19-2007, 01:53 PM   #72
dougdirt
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Re: BA Midseason Top 100

Quote:
 Originally Posted by M2 Two thoughts on Maybin, putting the ball on the carpet when you've got supreme wheels like that is a sound hitting approach. In other words, if he puts the ball in play on the IF grass and uses his speed, he's going to have a high BABIP.
Yes he is, but is there a reason at all to think that using the same approach that Ichiro has used his entire career (despite about half as many line drives) that his BABIP should be even close to that? I think this approach works for Maybin in the minors, but as he moves up the ladder this approach will not work for him until he starts hitting the ball harder more often (ie, more line drives).
Quote:
 The difference between a .120 and .103 LD% is, roughly, one liner per 50 ABs. That difference could be ephemeral dependent on the quality of the line drives. For instance, during Eric Davis' prime with the Reds, there was a constant chorus of people who insisted he had a radically high percentage of liners go for hits and that it would correct itself pretty much immediately.
I think you misunderstood the .120 thing I was referring to. BABIP, or suggested BABIP is generally calculated as line drive percentrage plus .120. So that is where Maybin's .103 LD% comes into play. That would suggest that his BABIP should sit around .103 + .120 = .223. Instead is over .400. Compare that with any other fast player in the minor leagues. I doubt you find many guys, or even any that have a suggested BABIP based on that formula that is over .180 points higher than its suggested to be. Lets take someone like Colby Rasmus for example, who has a .209 LD%. .209+.120= .329 BABIP. He is a centerfielder, so odds are he is not some slow footed guy and scouting reports would agree with that. What is his actual BABIP? .286. Justin Upton? .157 LD%. .157 + .120 = .277 BABIP. .330 actual BABIP. Upton is another guy with very good speed. Do you see what I am trying to say here? There is a serious issue at hand. If Maybin truly indeed is a singles hitter who uses tons of speed to beat out infield singles then there is no way the guy is the #3 prospect in baseball.

Quote:
 I'm under the impression that Maybin's got more than a little bit of that in him, that he hits is well enough to get some hits sometimes even when he hits it where they are (or where they could get to in normal circumstances). So his five liners in 50 ABs might be as or more effective than someone else's 6 liners in 50 ABs. It might not too, but given the consistency in his overall numbers over the last two seasons I think you have to allow for this being emblematic of something he does rather than of some random effect.
Well, I can't argue your numbers because they are wrong becuase I believe that you misunderstood what I was trying to illustrate. I think right now the guy is using his great speed and poor infielders to get on base a lot more often than he should. Simple as that. As he moves up, he won't do the same thing as infields and infielders improve unless he is getting more line drives or home runs.

I really don't want this to be looked at as I don't like Maybin. I think he is an excellent prospect. He however is just raw at the plate and needs to work on things in a very similar way that Drew Stubbs does (hitting line drives and not missing so much).
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