Originally Posted by dougdirt
I think you misunderstood the .120 thing I was referring to. BABIP, or suggested BABIP is generally calculated as line drive percentrage plus .120. So that is where Maybin's .103 LD% comes into play. That would suggest that his BABIP should sit around .103 + .120 = .223. Instead is over .400. Compare that with any other fast player in the minor leagues. I doubt you find many guys, or even any that have a suggested BABIP based on that formula that is over .180 points higher than its suggested to be. Lets take someone like Colby Rasmus for example, who has a .209 LD%. .209+.120= .329 BABIP. He is a centerfielder, so odds are he is not some slow footed guy and scouting reports would agree with that. What is his actual BABIP? .286. Justin Upton? .157 LD%. .157 + .120 = .277 BABIP. .330 actual BABIP. Upton is another guy with very good speed. Do you see what I am trying to say here? There is a serious issue at hand. If Maybin truly indeed is a singles hitter who uses tons of speed to beat out infield singles then there is no way the guy is the #3 prospect in baseball.
Gotcha on the theoretical BABIP calculation, though that gets exactly to the point I made about ED. For five years people insisted he couldn't do that and he did. I remember getting into a prolonged argument with a guy heading into the 1989 season about this very sort of thing. He insisted Davis liners would stop finding holes so frequently and I insisted that at some point you have to recognize his norm is different from the one you're using.
You could very well be right about Maybin. I haven't seen much of him beyond a few highlights, but he was always billed as a supremely athletic talent and guys like that can have some freaky peripherals because they're playing the game a bit differently. For instance, not all types of fast are the same. Some guys can hit sprinting speed in two steps, others take 30 yards to warm up the engine. Maybin may have a freakish break.
He hasn't touched AA yet and for that reason alone I recommend suspicion. The world is filled with kids whose games didn't translate to higher levels of competition. In my view, it's impossible to be a top 10 prospect in A ball.