Originally Posted by Dan
I have to somewhat agree here. The one thing that concerns me about Bruce, and that I think will limit him just a bit in the majors, is his K/BB ratio. It's not the fact he strikes out a lot (that's a different discussion and I tend to fall into the camp that Ks aren't different than any other out), but that he doesn't offset the Ks with BBs. To me, a great determining factor between a serviceable MLer and a super-star is the K/BB ratio. The closer it is to 1 or more, the more likely the player is to be in that super-star class.
To me, Bruce is going to be more like Geoff Jenkins than Larry Walker in his ML career. That's not a knock on Bruce, mind you, just an analysis of his minor-league #'s.
Geoff Jenkins? Really? Becuase he doesn't walk a ton? You do know that Jay Bruce is 20 and in AAA right? Geoff Jenkins didn't get to AAA until he was 23, and even then he posted a .717 OPS the first time around. I am not saying Geoff Jenkins is a bad player or anything, but I cant see any type of comparison between the two as hitters at all outside of a walk rate.
But if we are going to truly do an analysis of Bruce's minor league numbers, I suggest we actually look at them. Highest OPS for a 20 year old or younger in the FSL with 100 at bats over the last 6 seasons. David Wright, Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and Matt Kemp all also qualified. He then went to AA and posted an OPS over 1.000 as a 20 year old. He is now in AAA as a 20 year old and is posting an OPS of .973. You aren't going to find guys his age doing what he is doing. So looking at it statistically, or really almost any other way, I don't see how Geoff Jenkins is someone you can possible come up with.