Originally Posted by nate
Because you raised the point, I looked at if there was a difference in pitch count for Harang and Arroyo after Jerry was replaced:
Average number of pitches thrown per start -
Bronson Arroyo: 104
Aaron Harang: 109
Bronson Arroyo: 99
Aaron Harang: 100
Or maybe this is more telling:
Number of starts with 120 or more pitches thrown -
Bronson Arroyo: 2
Aaron Harang: 5
Bronson Arroyo: 1
Aaron Harang: 1
I honestly don't know what Mackanin's going to be like yet, and part of it is I just don't think his sample is big enough yet. Harang and Arroyo have had one questionable high pitch count game each under Mackanin, and the ironic thing is Harang's back injury was the very next game after his big 10 inning start, and Arroyo got shelled the very next game after Mackanin ran him out there for 123 pitches in late July.
I'm not sure the average pitches per game stat will tell you much. Here's 2007, for example ...
The key difference between the Reds pitchers and the big three is that the big three just don't have those individual high pitch count games, and those are the real killers. As Atomic pointed out, when you crack that 120+ pitch territory, the injury risk starts climbing heavily. Pitchers such as Webb, Peavy, and Santana are seemingly always throwing 100, 105, or 110 pitches, but when they get stretched out it's only a few rare starts in the 115 pitch count territory. This is unlike the Reds, who when they stretch out Harang and Arroyo, they're up in the 120 or 125 pitch count territory where the risk is much higher for injury.
Peavy's 2007 gamelog is actually a thing of beauty regarding pitch counts ... http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi...&t=p&year=2007
His average is 107 pitches per game, but look at the gamelog. Bud Black - who is a former pitcher turned pitching coach turned manager - has Peavy consistently throwing roughly the same number of pitches in every start this season, with the lowest being 98 pitches and the highest being 116 pitches (fewer than the high risk territory of 120+ pitches). All but four of Peavy's 27 starts this season have been between 100-114 pitches, with the two outliers being a pair of 98-pitch games and a pair of 116-pitch games.