Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????
I haven't done the research in a few years, but last time I checked high schoolers with 7-figure bonuses have a significantly higher failure rate than college and juco guys. In other words, I think your examples are exceptions, rather than the rule. Josh Beckett is another good recent exception.
If I were GM, and the scouting director wanted to blow a first round pick on a high school arm, he'd have to be pretty convincing.
And I disagree about Bailey. More than likely, I still say he turns out to be a below-average major league pitcher. I'm less convinced of that than I was a couple years ago, but it's much too premature for the Reds to proclaim success.
How, then, are those people of the future—who are taking steroids every day—going to look back on baseball players who used steroids? They're going to look back on them as pioneers. They're going to look back at it and say "So what?" - Bill James, Cooperstown and the 'Roids