Re: John Fay's article today-- 2002 draft the Reds could have had.....?????
I haven't done the research in a few years, but last time I checked high schoolers with 7-figure bonuses have a significantly higher failure rate than college and juco guys. In other words, I think your examples are exceptions, rather than the rule. Josh Beckett is another good recent exception.
If I were GM, and the scouting director wanted to blow a first round pick on a high school arm, he'd have to be pretty convincing.
And I disagree about Bailey. More than likely, I still say he turns out to be a below-average major league pitcher. I'm less convinced of that than I was a couple years ago, but it's much too premature for the Reds to proclaim success.
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