[M2]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

There's a very interesting article on BP today about the success of the Rockies. One of the points they made is that instead of looking for guys who could abuse the affects of Coors, they've been looking for guys whose natural skills sets are enhanced by Coors -- contact hitters with gap power, good defenders, power & pitchability pitchers rather than movement and pinpoint control. It's sort of a "take the wave" mentality in which you don't swim straight against or with it.

It was just one point among many. However, there's an interesting parallel. Pitchers who succeed in GABP aren't the ones who don't give up any homers (they don't exist). They're the ones that succeed even with they give up a homer or two. The hitters who benefit aren't the Adam Dunn's and Wily Mo Pena's who hit the ball 475 feet, but rather Brandon Phillips and Alex Gonzalez. GABP isn't so much the issue with Silva. It's having one of the worst defenses in baseball and not seeing any reason to expect significant improvement.

Great points. On the pitching front, I wouldn't shy away from a low cost guy who might be asking for extra leather support, but I don't recommend shelling out big bucks for one in advance of building the support system he'll need. If the Reds are intrigued by some of what Silva brings to the table (he's got a solid GB rate) I'd urge them to find someone who's like Silva from four years ago rather than pony up for the Silva 2007 model. He's got too much of a chance of falling flat on his face for my tastes.