Originally Posted by Falls City Beer
What offensive stats tell you is a much more complete picture of reality than what defensive stats tell you.
For determining defensive value: use your eyes.
For determining offensive value: check the stats.
How did you make the above assessment? What are Justin's defensive metrics missing that my eyes will tell me? What are the offensive metrics catching that my eyes would otherwise miss? And to the point, will your eyes will tell you how many runs Junior's defense cost the Reds relative the average RF in 2007?
One other point to be considered. Metrics measure what happened and only that. We should be careful not to interpret them otherwise. Your eyes see what happens and then merge that with everything else you've ever seen and know about that player.
Can you, FCB, really differentiate Junior's 2007 performance from any pre-existing bias you've had about his ability? Can you differentiate his 2007 performance
from your general assessment of his current ability
? Can you do this both for Dunn and Junior, relative to the performances of their peers in 2007?
It's quite possible that both the following things are true:
1.) Ken Griffey Jr is a worse outfielder than Adam Dunn in a general sense -- if they had to make the exact same plays, Dunn would better.
2.) Ken Griffey Jr had a better defensive season in 2007 relative to the other people at his position than did Adam Dunn.
The metrics you've seen posted in this thread only speaks to the second point. I find often that people discrediting quantitative measurement do so largely after they incorrectly inflate the scope of the intended interpretation. I suspect that that is at least partially going on in this case, and with critiques of defensive performance in general.