Quote:
Originally Posted by RedsManRick
I'm not sure how true that statement is for 2007 AK. There were a number of very good LF this year. I think it's probably true as a matter of convention or over time, but it's possible LF were better than RF in 2007.
To the point of the thread, and to FBC's comments, have you read Justin's work? Justin has done a ton of great analysis over there and it merits much more discussion than this chippy back and forth.
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Hopefully we can get this thread back on target, because it has potential. I have read Justin's work and have previously voiced my concerns with his methodology re: Defensive Run valuation.
Justin notes the work by Skyking162 at his blog. Take a look at the LF comparisons there:
http://skyking162.com/2007/11/2007-r...left-fielders/
After hearing repeated calls of Dunn being allegedly worth 15-20 negative Runs versus positional average, Skyking's analysis places him at -11. That's a little closer to reality. Justin's own numbers place Dunn at -14.9. I think we can put the "-20" baby to bed at this point, particularly after our previous thread about defensive value. At worst, Dunn appears to be 10-15 Runs worse than your average LF during a season in which he had leg issues. At best, if completely healthy, he may be an average to slightly-above average option in 2008.
BTW, look down the list at Bonds. -6 Fielding Runs? The guy is a statue. <shrug>
Skyking (-10) and Justin (-10.4) are in virtual agreement on Griffey's defensive value versus his peer group. Considering the difficulty in assessing the true validity of defensive Run values, I'd suggest that Dunn and Griffey could each be worth the same number of negative Runs versus their respective positional average, but that Dunn actually could still field his position better than Junior does his.
From a subjective perspective, Griffey possesses better lateral range and goes back on the ball better than Dunn, but I've rarely seen an Outfielder do a worse job of getting to balls hit in front of him. In the end, that may affect Run value as Griffey projects to be better able to suppress single-play intensity (read: Doubles), but his inability to get to a goodly number of singles appears to balance things out. Lastly, I remember more than one 2007 play where a ball dropped between Gonzalez and Dunn where, had Dunn continued to move in, he'd have killed Alex. Dude ain't lithe and he doesn't stop on a dime, quarter, or ten dollar bill. Communication and familiarity are key, and I didn't see a whole lot of it.
The other interesting this is Skyking's TVAR rankings. Here are the numbers from Dunn on up:
5. (Tie) Adam Dunn, Carl Crawford- 37 TVAR
4. Alfonso Soriano- 38 TVAR
3. Eric Byrnes- 44 TVAR
2. Barry Bonds- 59 TVAR
1. Matt Holliday- 67 TVAR
Until you hit Bonds at #2, you've got fractional Win players ahead of Dunn. I'd suggest that Byrnes doesn't project to reproduce his .358 OBP going forward. And who knows what Bonds will be doing next season. That should leave Dunn in the mix as one of the top three or four players at his position from an overall Run value standpoint.
On another note, I'm a little leery of Justin's results for the 1B position. No, I've never worked under the assertion that Hatteberg/Conine/Cantu/Votto were good defenders, but to see that quartet combine for nearly 15 negative Runs? Yikes.