Re: The Value of our 2007 Cincinnati Reds
All the math makes my head hurt. Defensive metrics ... Here are my questions - how can you measure the damage done by shoddy fielding. It doesn't correlate, imo, to offensive stats. For isnstance, what bats would you have avoided facing had the error not been made (or a ball not caught that would be in another players range)? An error that extends the inning is likely to be much less damaging over the course of a season if the pitcher is due up next than Albert Pujols or Adam Dunn. My biggest gripe with these kind of stats is exactly the isolationism that is supposed to make them superior. Baseball is not an isolation sport- ARod is proof enough that just having the best player in baseball isn't going to get you anywhere of itself. Maybe for an individual player stats can be isolated from temamates to make valid comps to other players but on a team basis - as a collective - that ios where stats seem to come up short. Teams with a group of hitters that should wreck all scoring records rarely seem to, teams that have poor fielding seem to always have poor pitching. Individual analysis is great but does anyone know if anyone is doing any work in team aggregated stats. Like balancing a lineup, the affect of situations in a game given a team's variables in player abilities and how all that may affect outcomes. How do you statistically model different team characteristics to achieve a competitive balance. When is acquiring stud pitcher A better than keeping stud hitter B or vice versa. How does an error affect the likelihood a pitcher grooves a pitch to the next hitter (is it me or does that seem to happen a lot?) and how does that type of performance affect statistical measure. Seems to me individual metrics wouldn't be as important in that scenario than the team value in aggregate - and that seems to me to require some of the same stats and some different tools. I'm explainig my questions poorly, I think but maybe Steel or M2 or can follow me enough to see what I'm after here.