Re: Redszone Community Prospect Vote: #11
What we see often is that as guys move up, reality sets in. We are less and less able to wishcast their flaws away. We focus on what they can't do and minimize what they can. The exact opposite happens with that guy who hasn't done much of anything yet. He's still a blank slate for our imaginations.
Don't get me wrong; I don't think Dorn is a future all-star. I do think that guys who move 3 levels in a year and hit .300/.400/.500 along the way tend to become major leaguers. It's one thing to take a top 20 pick who performed well in his first season in rookie ball and put him in the top 10 prospects. It's another to take the 53rd overall pick who has 29 decent professional innings and put him ahead of a guy who excelled in AA at an appropriate age.
I'm excited about Lotzkar. But at what point do you start giving credit for actual performance? At what point do you stop brushing away their problems as fixable. If Dorn goes .300/.400/.500 split between AA and AAA next year, and Lotzkar goes 140 IP with a 3.50 ERA, 9 H/9, 3 BB/9, and 9 K/9 in Dayton, where will they stand? I get the feeling that because he wasn't a high draft pick, Dorn will be considered a virtual non-prospect until he's a major leaguers.
And if Dorn is going to be railed for his problems with lefties, than Fransisco shouldn't even be on the radar until he learns the strikezone. That's one skill that is quite projectable and a big strike against him. He's got a ton of power, but how is that going to translate up the the line when his contact issues are exploited even more?
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 12-02-2007 at 11:09 AM.