Originally Posted by DanielJ
Hi, first time poster here. I'm just curious. Wouldn't Bailey's BB/9 numbers going up be a result of his trying to work his breaking pitches in more? I recall that was a major knock against Bailey before he was called up that he was almost strictly a fastball pitcher?
If so, I think that what will make or break Bailey this year is if he can somehow gain command of those pitches.
I think that is part of it. Welcome to the board. Keep posting.
The problem that many on here have is that it doesn't seem like Bailey has been able to solve the problem with his breaking pitches and that he'll struggle similarly next season. If he goes to his fastball too much in the majors (especially if its after falling behind in the count with secondary pitches that he hasn't harnesed command of), he'll get killed.
Personally I don't want to see Bailey or Cueto in the rotation next season, but that doesn't mean I want them traded. I'd rather see both stay in AAA. Bailey needs to build up his innings and continue to refine those pitches. Cueto is more ready IMO - having thrown nearly 200 innings between the minor leagues and winter ball. He has faced some high level hitters in winter ball so the knock of only 22 AAA innings isn't really a true reading. I do agree with the posters who say they would rather see Cueto and Bailey than to spend $50 Million on Carlos Silva or Kyle Lohse or to ravage the rotation and the pen with someone of the Kirk Saarloos or Brett Tomko caliber.
I'd like to see one more year for the entire minor league pitching depth to mature. With Bailey and Cueto ready later in 2008 or 2009. By 2009 Fisher, Thompson, Lecure and maybe Wood will be knocking at the door and the Reds may be on the verge of having a pipeline of pitching to supplement the big league staff. Bailey and Cueto don't really seem like supplements to Harang and Arroyo as much as they're successors at the top of the rotation with these other guys coming along for the lower spots on the cheap. That is how the team will stay competetive for years (though I hope they keep Harang around for a long time).
Maloney seems more like Dumatrait to me. He's looked good in the minors but I'm sleptical about his chances in the majors. IMO he's one to deal this year in a package for a mid rotation guy.
I'd like to see the Reds add a mid-level starter or two (it doesn't have to be a star like Bedard) that can be around for a few years while keeping the top two guys in AAA to ripen. A couple of mid-level additions while keeping Bailey and Cueto should begin a run of many years of pitching for the big club.