Originally Posted by jojo
How many people are solely using Homer's '07 to predict his '08 though?
Personally, I'm not. I'm looking at his entire body of work as a professional and I see a lot of high BB rates. If you are walking 4+ batters per 9 at the minor league level, you are going to get ripped in the show by any team with the slightest bit of patience. Yes, age has something to do with his performance at the major league level, but it was easy to predict that he was going to walk a lot of batters.
Cueto on the other hand has never had a BB/9 higher than 3.36 and his career minor league BB/9 is half Bailey's. (4.23 to 2.12)
Using Cueto's entire body of work I think if he got the exact same AAA treatment Bailey did, followed by the same PROJECTED number of starts, you'll get a similar result in that Cueto's BB/9 will probably go up a bit. His K/9 will probably go down a bit. But because right now his command is better than Bailey's the overall result will be far better.