Originally posted by gm
"the issue offers two extremely important implications for the 2003 Reds--the Reds are either going to start losing more often, or they're going to have to score more runs. Something's gotta give"
Or, 3) the Red's pitching staff (esp. the rotation) needs to reduce their runs allowed.
I'm glad you posted this, since I was just running the numbers
First, let's assume that the Reds' offense of the past 34 games (Post "Big Shakeup") is the "Real" Reds offense (scoring 5.29 runs/game). If that's the case, then the Reds can look to score 843 runs for the season (by the way, Arizona led the NL last year with 819 RS). For the Reds pitching to get even with that, they're going to have to go from giving up [currently for the season] 6.13 Runs/Game (or 5.56 runs/game since "the big shakeup") down to 4.76 runs/game (a difference of either 1.37 runs/game or 0.80 runs/game, depending on your point of view)
Either way, without a major change in personel on the pitching side, I don't see that happening.