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Old 12-21-2007, 11:20 AM   #33
Dan
OlafTheBlack
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Woodbridge, VA
Posts: 2,058
Re: Jay Bruce, how good will be be?

Quote:
Originally Posted by princeton View Post
the K's are the only concern. But he's so young that I expect improvement in that area.

Reggie Jackson is another pretty good comp. Jackson's K problem improved to the point that they weren't too big of a problem.

even if he doesn't improve in that area, he'd probably be a top player.
Actually, Ks by themselves don't worry me all that much. Lots of players have high numbers of Ks, but the top players offset them by high numbers of BBs as well. (Dunn, Thome, Howard)

Also note that the players that hit 40+ HRs this year all had decent BB/K ratios:

Code:
Player               HR          BB               K
Prince Fielder 	   50  	 	90  	 	121  	 	
Ryan Howard 	 47  	 	107  	 	199  	 	
Adam Dunn        40  	 	101  	 	165  	 	
Álex Rodríguez 	  54  	 	95  	 	120  	 	
Carlos Peña 	   46  	 	103  	 	142
Also Jackson only had < 40% BB/K ratio 3 times in a full season in his career. Bruce is at 37% for his (albeit rather) short career. It's something to watch out for as he progresses.
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"Somebody will be bigger, stronger and faster than you, growing up," Griffey said with a shrug. "So why worry about it? As long as you don't let them outwork you, and you can look yourself in the mirror, then that's all you should worry about. Never worry about what somebody else is doing."
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