Re: Jay Bruce, how good will be be?
Originally Posted by princeton
the K's are the only concern. But he's so young that I expect improvement in that area.
Reggie Jackson is another pretty good comp. Jackson's K problem improved to the point that they weren't too big of a problem.
even if he doesn't improve in that area, he'd probably be a top player.
Actually, Ks by themselves don't worry me all that much. Lots of players have high numbers of Ks, but the top players offset them by high numbers of BBs as well. (Dunn, Thome, Howard)
Also note that the players that hit 40+ HRs this year all had decent BB/K ratios:
Player HR BB K
Prince Fielder 50 90 121
Ryan Howard 47 107 199
Adam Dunn 40 101 165
Álex Rodríguez 54 95 120
Carlos Peña 46 103 142
Also Jackson only had < 40% BB/K ratio 3 times in a full season in his career. Bruce is at 37% for his (albeit rather) short career. It's something to watch out for as he progresses.
"Somebody will be bigger, stronger and faster than you, growing up," Griffey said with a shrug. "So why worry about it? As long as you don't let them outwork you, and you can look yourself in the mirror, then that's all you should worry about. Never worry about what somebody else is doing."