Originally Posted by Dan
Given your caveats, my guess is he will pan out to be like Geoff Jenkins. Solid, but never quite hitting his potential ceiling because his selective aggressiveness isn't there.
I wouldn't go as far as a Jenkins comp for Bruce considering Bruce's minor league IsoP advantage. But it's interesting that Jenkins MiLB BB rate was actually higher than Bruce's has been. Some of that might be attributed to advancing at a younger age for Bruce, but we can't simply discount Bruce's below-average IsoD as being a non-issue at this point. Very few MLB hitters are able to produce consistent seasons of the kind of "ceiling" performance that some are expecting for Bruce with that kind of IsoD.
Aramis Ramirez is possibly the best example of someone who produces consistent low-.900 OPS numbers while also producing a lower-than-average IsoD. Now, K rates don't matter when it comes to overall performance, but as it relates soley to Batting Average, there is some effect. Therefore we should note that Aramis Ramirez is currently producing much lower K rates than we can reasonably expect from Jay Bruce. That may suppress the possibility that we'll see multiple .300 BA/.360 OBP/.560 SLG type seasons. And I'd suggest that's not even close to what some are expecting of Bruce. In fact, if Jay Bruce is producing those numbers while striking out 150 times a year, I have a feeling that a lot of folks will be very disappointed. Of course, expecting ridiculous ceilings often results in disappointment.
To come close to meeting "ceiling" expectations, Bruce is likely going to have to be hitting 45-50 Home Runs on a regular basis in order to enhance his Batting Average should he not be able to significantly enhance his BB rate on his own. Is that power output possible? Yeah, but I don't like the odds. If it did happen, we would then see pitchers "helping" Bruce with his BB rates; resulting in a higher IsoD regardless of further work in that area by Bruce himself.
Geoff Jenkins? Nah. Aramis Ramirez? Maybe. Ken Griffey Jr.? Ehhh....