Re: 2008 Reds ZiPS Projections
Projections are fun, I could spend all day going over them. But they are pretty useless on young players (see projections for Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and Dustin Pedroia), especially pitchers. Bill James doesn't even think it can be done with pitchers.
They tend to be pretty accurate with veteran position players, but just look at the projections last year for James Shields, Fausto Carmona, and Jeremy Guthrie. No need to think that Bailey, Cueto and Volquez will all be as bad as projected.
Still, I am not sure why he thinks Reds fans would be disappointed with that production. They have five guys projecting from around .800 - .850 OPS. And even Dan says that it was Phillips' past years of sucking that lead to his low projection for '08. I have a feeling Phillips, overrated or not, will have at least a .800 OPS in '08 which gives the Reds five out of eight spots with a .800 OPS projection or better in '08. I am fine with that.
I also think that one from this group will have a .900+ OPS next year. Most likely Dunn.