Poor choice, but also poor budgeting.
Bailey was an excellent choice. Weaver was not chosen by the Reds, just as he was passed over by the rest of the top half of the first round in 04, because he wanted well over slot and a major league deal. It was an organizational preference, shared by many other teams, to avoid players with those demands. So, it's not a matter of Bailey vs Weaver -- it's a matter of policy that has more to do with budgets and roster management than it does with player evaluation. Again, it's a mistake to say Bailey was a bad pick.
Stubbs Instead of Lincecum
Looks bad now. But I wouldn't close the case yet. Long road ahead for both players.
I've said this so many times, but I'm going to again. If your MO is to compare the Reds' choice to every other player taken after that choice, you'll wind up unhappy almost always. Because the odds are hugely, greatly in favor of at least one of the other 29 teams finding a player who has a better career than the player the Reds selected.
My take is that starting in 04 the team has done much better in the draft. Much remains to be seen, but it's hard to argue that the system doesn't appear very healthy when compared to others.