Re: Jim Callis Espn Chat
Originally Posted by Cooper
I think Princeton has a point ....95% of these guys (probably higher) won't make it to the bigs...and their current value is probably at an all-time high.
A 22 year old 1st baseman vs a 24 year old 1st baseman with the same stats and the same classification- the 22 year old is probably worth 10 times more than the 24 year old. I think the point is this -you better figure things out quick and sell players off when their value is at their highest. Figuring this out is brutal -it would be nice if the team had a systematic way of measuring things to find out true value -my guess is they take a lot of WAG hoping that they are correct (that's what the rule 5 pick up looked like).
I just don't believe the Reds have a way in which they measure things to find out the optimum value of their prospects. I would guess there's a lot of talk, but not a lot parameters in place to help their staff figure things out. The Red Sox are years ahead of everyone else in this regard. I wish the Reds would do the same.
I think you make some good points.
Here's the thing though. It's become chic
recently to hammer Doug about context. But here's a little context IMHO...the majority of A/B+ prospects that the Reds are "sitting on" actually fit needs for the Reds 25 man roster. I don't consider factoring them into your long range plans to be rationalizing mediocrity and failure. Once a position player reaches the prospect status of Bruce or even Votto, the risk really is overstated-in all likelihood they are going to contribute at the major league level. The only question is will a guy like Bruce be truly elite or will he simply be a regular (which in and of itself is valuable over 6 yrs).
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Last edited by jojo; 01-06-2008 at 02:26 PM.