Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS
Steel: Why would you hesitate buying a HD-DVD that you saw out there that you liked? You already own a player.
If it's a "must buy", I'll probably grab it. However, if this whole thing goes the way I think it likely could, everything's going to be on Blu-Ray eventually. While the Toshiba HD-A2 I own is good, I get better playback results from my PS3, shorter load times, and more frequent firmware updates. Secondly, I've found that some releases have been more expensive on HD DVD (particularly the combo disc offerings).
However, for exclusive catalogue "want" titles, I'll wait as they might either eventually be released on Blu-Ray or end up in the HD DVD bargain bin. For example, if I knew then what I know now, I wouldn't have purchased "Serenity" on HD DVD. Ditto with "Batman Begins" as that one will almost assuredly be released on Blu-Ray either within the next year or as part of a trilogy set. I have to believe that "The Matrix" trilogy will also be around on Blu-Ray within the next year. I often wonder if part of Warner's relationship with Toshiba didn't either include exclusivity for that set or that Warner wasn't offered some kind of incentive to release that trilogy only on HD DVD.
I also wonder if Warner wasn't disappointed in the sales volume of what should have been a "must-have" HD collection (Matrix) if they agreed to produce it exclusively on HD DVD. Just my thoughts, of course, but Warner must have had some valid reasons to make the switch beyond just trying to create format uniformity in order to further the HD movie market. And as they've produced a huge volume of format-neutral titles, including the recent "Harry Potter" collection, I'd muse that they don't like the sales numbers they're seeing despite Toshiba's consistent claims that they have nearly half of the HD "standalone" player market. Of course, Toshiba also includes their X-Box 360 add-on as a "standalone" and obviously excludes the PS3.
But HD DVD player prices have been down to less than $100 (HD-A2 in November + five free mail-in) and to under $200 (HD-A3 is $179 at Sam's club with 7 free movies- 2 in box) over the past three months. They've been giving away "King Kong" in-box along with "Heroes: Season 1" AND the five free mail-in offer. Considering that the HD DVD standalone players have consistently been cheaper than standalone Blu-Ray players (and definitively so), the fact that Toshiba has only half the market there isn't good. Then mix in the reported 7.2 million PS3's sold thusfar, and it's a bloodbath for Blu Ray.
Waiting for things to play out isn't really my nature, but when we get to a 70%/30% studio support ratio in favor of Blu-Ray and an extreme advantage in players in market, it's time for me to get even more bearish on the probability for HD-DVD's long-term survival. Many financial and industry analysts are already toting the Warner move as being the death knell for HD DVD. And it could be as Warner had the biggest total piece of the HDM pie for 2007.
HD DVD has to do something to respond, so look out for more HD player offerings at or around the $100.00 price point in the near future (probably the HD-A3).
Probably a longer response than you (or anyone) was looking for, but that's my reasoning.