Originally Posted by RedsManRick
Let's do this for the Reds, looking at players with solid major league careers drafted after us in the first round, including the supplemental.
Year, Pick: Player (career) - Could Have Had: Player Pick,
1989, #20: OF Scott Bryant (minors only) - CHH: Tom Goodwin #22, Mo Vaughn #23, Chuck Knoblauch #25, Todd Jones #27
1990, #7: C Dan Wilson (solid major league career) - CHH: Jeromy Burnitz #17, Mike Mussina #20
1991, #20: SS Pokey Reese (decent major league career) - CHH: Aaron Sele #23, Scott Hatteberg #43
1992, #5: OF Chad Mottola (cup of coffee) - CHH: Derek Jeter #6, Preston Wilson #9, Michael Tucker #10, Shannon Stewart #19, Jason Kendall #23, Charles Johnson #28, Johnny Damon #35
1993, #32: OF Pat Watkins (cup of cofee) - CHH: Nobody of note
1994, #9, P CJ Nitkowski (cup of coffee) - CHH: Nomar Garciaparra #12, Paul Konerko #13, Jason Varitek #14, Terrance Long #20
1995, No Pick
1996, #25 OF John Oliver (minors only) - CHH: Chris Reitsma #34, Jason Marquis #35
1997, #14 3B Brandon Larson (cup of coffee) - CHH: Lance Berkman #16, Adam Kennedy #20, Jack Cust #30,
1998, #7 OF Austin Kearns (solid major leager) - CHH: Brad Lidge #17, CC Sabathia #20
So we had more first rounders reach the majors than not (8/10), but only 3 guys who did anything of note in the majors. I think the point is made, nearly every team could look at their draft history in this way. Chances are each team will have a few good hits, a few really bad misses, and a whole lot of missed opportunities. You look at a team like the Braves and they went from Chipper Jones in 1990 until Adam Wainwright in 2000 without hitting on a single good first round pick.
You figure there are only 5-10 guys from each first round who really turn out to have decent major league careers. Doing the math, that leaves each team with 1 good first round pick every 3 or 4 years. Ouch. A team who gets a decent major leaguer every other year is ahead of the curve. What becomes notable as you look through the list of first round picks is how many superstars were passed over at least once by everybody.