Re: Dougdirts 2008 Reds Projections
Dunn, Junior, Hopper, Hatte and Freel seem accurate to me. I'd say you're being slightly optimistic with A-Gon (although a few more lucky moonshots could carry for him, so I'll give you that) and a bit pessimistic with Phillips (although I suppose you're just projecting him to be a bit unlucky, which I accept). I would love to see Votto, EdE and Ross produce the way you've suggested, but I have my doubts.
Finally, your stats for Bruce seem to be roughly in line with quite a few other projections I've seen. I'm wondering why everyone thinks his OBP will hover around .330. Is it because he struck out so much in the minors? Do you see that being a learning curve issue where it will improve dramatically in year two?
As for the pitchers, I agree on Harang and Arroyo. They are both actually fairly consistent pitchers, and barring injury, I see them spinning similar seasons. How realistic do you think it is to expect all four of the young guys (Belisle, Bailey, Volquez, Cueto) to be around league average? Unless I'm misguided, that's what your projections seem to suggest, right? I'd love to see this happen, of course, but I have to think that the more likely scenario would have 2 out of 4 of them finishing that way with the other two struggling a bit. Honestly, I think if 2 out of 4 of them can approach a 4.50, the team will be awfully competitive.
My only quibble with the BP is that I have a feeling that Weathers is going to implode... but that's not based on any kind of reliable statistical backup.
Thanks for some great work!
"It's a dog-eat-dog world and I'm wearing milkbone underwear." - Norm (George Wendt), Cheers