Originally Posted by mlbfan30
Your stength is Runs and SB. There are more than 2007 numbers when it comes to AVG. AVG has a large luck factor and can fluctuate greatly from year to year. BABIP gives a general idea whether or not a player got lucky. AVG's always need to be regressed to the mean for predictions. Jeter should be solid. But some others are very risky. You Cannot rely on a luck induced AVG from the previous year. Fantasy predictions HAVE to be conservative.
BABIP - Player
.393 - Upton
.411 - Kemp
.378 - Reynalds
.350 - Loney
.374 - Crawford
BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF) This is similar to DER, but from the batter's perspective.
The average BABIP is around .300. Some players can sustain high BABIPs like Ichiro or Jeter or low BABIPs like anduw Jones. But in most cases you need to regress data to roughly .300.
You are setting yourself up for a huge dissapointment if you bank on AVG. It is a big mistake. Your team is probably fine, but replacing Jeter with Greene is going to absolutly kill any chance in AVG.
The best option is to trade Crawford for a power bat. Crawford fits your strengths in Runs/SB and you can afford to trade them since you NEED power/RBI. The AVG change will be a minor hit at best and will most like be negligible. Trust me on this.
Anyone but Crawford, he's my favorite player in MLB
Thanks for the advice, i'll definitely consider.