Re: Thoughts on this trade?
And again, by dropping a consistent high average, Jeter, for a low average, Jones or Green or whoever, you are setting yourself up for a big surprise. Jones is especially worrisome.
The reason is because he get's on massive hot and cold steaks. But his colds streaks far outweight the hot ones and will really hurt the team in H2H.
Jeter is the wrong choice to trade. I have drafted Jeter maybe only once in 50+ drafts, but you can't undervalue his talents.
Again, Rios/Upton have career high 24HRs. EE's high is 16HR. When projecting future performance in fantasy, it is always better to be on the safe side. You project 25 HR for Rios/Uption and 15 for EE at the very best when making the roster.
You say you want to use 2007 AVG for 2008 AVG, but then use higher than 2007 HR for 2008 HR. This is to everyone that plays. When you project young or sleepers or stars or whoever, you always project conservative with the hope of breakout, but not depending on breakout. You regress numbers that are high like Fielders 50+ HRs, or Magglio's .350 BA. If you can create and project a winning team with conservative values, that will almost always create a winner in the league.