Originally Posted by SteelSD
The problem is that the "depth" needed by the Reds has been quality pitching depth. Affeldt doesn't represent that. He's a guy who put together the kind of Innings you'd normally see from a LOOGY (a little over 2 Outs per Appearance) in 2007, but who actually didn't perform as a solid LOOGY versus Lefty hitters. He's obviously not a starter or a swing-man due to a history of non-performance coupled with physical issues in that role, which reduces his value considerably. He has no real history of solid MLB performance, has a history of folks saying he has great "stuff" but has never backed that up with results or K rate, and has a history of poor command.
As far as quality "depth" goes, Jeremy Affeldt is pretty much a non-starter in more ways than one. One one hand, I'm happy that Krivsky and Co. gave such a pitcher only 11+ Innings in Spring Training to confirm to Affeldt that he should be in the pen. On the other hand, smart teams shouldn't be signing Jeremy Affeldt to three million dollar deals even for one year in order to slot him in a role he's only been semi-good at once in his life.
While I agree that the "plan" is to be "tolerable" (another word for "competitive"...sigh), I can at least understand the Josh Fogg signing. I don't agree with bringing bad pitchers in, but at 1M we have a guy making less than 700K over MLB minimum and who at least has a history of taking the mound. Don't get me wrong, there's a pretty good chance that Fogg ends up being Ramon Ortiz bad, but when you have nothing but kids for the final rotation slots, I can understand how a GM wants to have some kind of backup. It's a lame backup, and "mediocre" might actually represent high praise for Fogg, but I can see why he's here at 1M.
Affeldt? No reason for him to be anywhere near this franchise at 3M dollars. It's like the Reds mis-judged the offseason auction for talent and then bid higher than they needed to in order to acquire a player they already had.
2007 Jon Coutlangus
2007 Jeremy Affeldt
The difference between their respective DIPS rates over 59 Innings pitched, assuming exactly the same performance for 2007 equals five Runs. But here we have a first-time MLB performer in Coutlangus and a longer-term MLB perfomer in Affeldt. There's simply no way I pay over 2.5 million dollars more for Affeldt.
The Reds have consistently missed on relivers during Krivsky's tenure. They've missed to the point where they needed to dramatically overpay for the one Closer option (Cordero) who was right in front of everyone's face. With luck, they'll be able to put together a competent bullpen eventually. But at this point, I expect a whole lot more than luck and throwing talent and money at a problem that could have been solved by better analysis and gameplanning.
Steel speaks a whole lot of truth in this post.
We often hear Wayne praised for his rule five drafts, waiver wire pickups and players to be named later... while we turn a deaf ear to all of the time, talent, money spent, and his total incompetence of player evaluation in order to improve the bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds.