Dunn has shown flashes in the past, but they've been simply that. He hasnt continued those flashes to make them the norm. If he were to make some minor adjustments, especially when he's got 2 strikes, that would be huge.
I really dont want the Reds to resign him if he's going to get upwards of 15 mil a year for a few years. I feel that there are quality replacements that can be had for far cheaper in the short term and long term. It's alot easier to find quality OFers than any other position. That said, I can be convinced to change my stance if he has a great season.