Re: CIN/COL Trade Proposal
I said this in another thread about Arroyo, and I'm going to repeat it in hopes that it sinks in:
Any life form higher up the evolutionary chain than "houseplant" does not trade a #2 starting pitcher for a role/platoon player or a package made up of role/platoon players. You only trade a #2 starter for a package of near-can't-miss young prospects, or you trade a #2 starter for a bankable and productive major-league-ready position player.
Got it? Good.
Seriously, there are still people 'round these parts who'd pound the hammer if the chance to crucify Krivsky about "The Trade" presented itself, and the reason why is because he traded from the "top 15" (of everday players and starters) for dime-a-dozen relievers and a utility player. At some point, you can't make up for the quality you're trading away by receiving quantity in return; a top level player cannot be replaced by any number of bench players or relievers. Three fringe pieces of Colorado's bench/minors don't add up to equal an Arroyo.
Oh, and the "off the hook for $25 million" comment? You trade Arroyo, and you're also off the hook for what should be about 65 Quality Starts over the next 3 years. I know Arroyo's not the dominant kind of pitcher who will ever be an ace, but the camp calling him a "#4" who does nothing but eat innings in mediocre fashion couldn't be more off base. Even last year (perceived of as a crappy year for Arroyo), the guy chalked up 22 Quality Starts. That's 11th best in all of major league baseball. That's more than Harang had. That's a pitcher who leaves his team with a perfectly reasonable chance to win the game more than two-thirds of the time. That's a pitcher who did the exact same thing the year before, and should be considered a more reliable candidate to repeat the feat again (no matter how much man-love you have after two weeks of Volquez and Cueto).
Bottom line: if you like what Arroyo did for us in 2006, then you should like his 2007 the same way (take out one six start stretch he had from May 20 to June 20 last year -- a stretch where he was obviously affected by "pitcher abuse" in his three previous starts of 120-plus pitch-count outings -- the numbers are almost identical), and have expectations for more of the same going forward. It ain't his fault that he had 22 quality starts, and in those games, his offense and bullpen screwed him over to the tune of 7 losses and 8 no decisions (6 of those no decisions ended in losses by the bullpen).
I realize the painful reality of the Reds accruing 13 losses in Arroyo's 22 QS is something that could, conceivably, repeat if our offense keeps stinking like it has the last three games.... but that doesn't mean I'm ready to give away a guy who'll leave us with a realistic chance to win 65 games in the next three years just so I can have a right handed bat on the bnech, a fourth catcher, and a minor league reliever, not a one of them under the age of 25 or with any remarkable upside.