Originally Posted by dougdirt
I just wanted to point out one reason, not just the walks, that Bruce's OBP is closer to his AVG..... Marty Brennamen is excited, Bruce had 5 sac flies this year. Those aren't at bats, but are plate appearances, so it draws his two numbers closer. Without them, it puts his numbers 12 points further apart.
Unfortunately, that has nothing to do with Bruce's plate discipline and the AB suppression factor of those five Outs would leave Bruce's IsoD at a paltry .042.
I really like Bruce's tools, but if we expect him to perform as anything like his current iteration once he hits the show for the first time, we'd be crazy IMHO. His current BA (.359) doesn't project to be sustainable, and his low IsoD doesnt' project very well. He's "succeeding poorly".
And for folks who get grumpy about offensive player K rates, Bruce is currently striking out once every 4.10 AB in AAA. For his MilB career, it's been one K every 3.96 AB. Adam Dunn's rate this year is once every 3.74 AB. Projecting that over 650 PA, it means that folk may have to stomach 150+ K's per season from Bruce at the MLB level, at least at first, and likely for quite a while.
Everyone get ready, because Bruce will be here soon. He could be great. But he also could be something different that what Reds fans expect.